Filibuster_HK 2018-5-15 16:17:39 Argentina put the financial cart before the horse

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/387605-argentina-put-the-financial-cart-before-the-horse

The Argentine peso’s free fall is providing a painful economic lesson to Argentine President Mauricio Macri.

In the same way that it is not a good idea to put the cart before the horse, it was not a good idea for Macri to completely lift his country’s capital controls before stabilizing the highly imbalanced economy that he inherited from Christine Kirschner.

This raises the all-too-likely possibility that Macri is soon going to be forced to reintroduce capital controls to break the Argentine currency’s free fall.

Soon after coming to office in December 2015, Macri took the bold step of eliminating Argentina’s highly restrictive capital-control system. However, he did so without forcefully addressing the country’s serious macroeconomic imbalances.

Instead, he opted for a policy of gradual economic reform. As a result, on the eve of entering into a decisive tightening phase of the interest rate cycle, the Argentine economy was very much exposed to less-favorable global liquidity conditions and to U.S. dollar appreciation.

甲由屋 2018-5-15 16:18:51 破產好似好平常

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Filibuster_HK 2018-5-15 16:22:03 Argentina economy: From comeback kid to turbulence

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44107630

The key question is, why were they in Argentina in the first place? The short answer to that is: quick gains. Since President Macri took office, the Argentine Central Bank greatly expanded its issuance of Lebac (short for Letras del Banco Central, or Central Bank Notes), short-term Argentine bonds with fantastically high interest rates.

Investors could exchange their dollars for pesos, invest in Lebac bonds - which mature in as little as 35 days and provide a yearly interest rate of 29% - and then sell their pesos for dollars again. This practice is called carry trade and it was done by all sorts of investors, from big banks to small savers.

For some time, investors just rolled debt on from one bond to another. But in April, many began to leave Argentina, fearing President Macri would not be able to deliver on his promise to bring down inflation.

Moreover, with the prospect of the US raising its own interest rates, many considered they had made enough money in Argentina and it was time to recalibrate risks. Like a poker player on a winning streak, investors felt the odds of the next bet being a losing one were increasing with time. The mass exit made the peso lose almost a quarter of its value.

Argentines have been through so much economic turmoil, they are not quick to panic. Many of the people I spoke to in Buenos Aires last week shrugged off the crisis and stoically replied: "We're from Argentina. We are used to this".

Under President Macri, Argentina went from being an economy that relied on government overspending to one that relied on debt issued to volatile foreign investors.

Many believe Mr Macri is doomed, especially as going to the IMF is the most unpopular move a president could make in Argentina, where the organisation is widely loathed and blamed for the 2001 economic collapse. The president is trying to project confidence. He still has hopes of being re-elected next year but for that to happen he will need to contain this crisis soon.

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-15 18:10:31 國際關係評論員之間的花生:

韓半島新聞平台怒屌香港「韓國專家」鍾樂偉

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https://www.facebook.com/knewsonline/

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-15 18:27:23 之前有巴打點南非咩事，係度貼翻先

South Africa direct rule for North West province

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44101133

South Africa has taken over direct administration of North West province where corruption allegations have led to violent protests.

There have also been calls for the regional premier to resign.

The decision to intervene was taken by President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has made the fight against corruption a priority.

The province's regional premier, Supra Mahumapelo - a political ally of former President Jacob Zuma - has refused to step down but went on leave. His administration has been accused of corruption and the misuse of state funds - accusations he denies.

After complaints about the poor delivery of public services and the near collapse of the healthcare system, President Ramaphosa deployed army medics to help out in the hospitals.

It is the first time the national government has taken control of an entire provincial administration, South Africa's Sunday Times reports.

More North West powers taken away from Supra

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/more-north-west-powers-taken-away-from-supra-20180512

More departments in the North West are expected to be placed under administration by the national government as the interministerial task team led by Minister in the Presidency Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma returns to the embattled province to give feedback on its findings.

Highly placed insiders in the provincial government and ANC told City Press that plans were under way to increase the number of ministers participating in the task team, which has been seen as an indication that national government was likely to take more powers away from the province.

Last month, President Cyril Ramaphosa placed both the provincial health department and treasury under administration in a bid to stabilise service delivery in the province after social unrest erupted in the capital, Mahikeng, and other parts of the province.

伏羽忍冬 2018-5-16 00:36:40

因為稅改過左=任務完成=可以去逗金主份糧
仲可以防埋稅改出事嘅政治反噬

想問問GOP 以前的Bush tax cut已經證明成效好差，依家利得稅由35%減到21%，又不斷增加開支。我想知tea party 班人點回應

巴打可以睇吓以下的訪問，基本上都係指有好過而家冇，不過都係GOP未做得夠多，草根階層要更多要求政客對聯邦政府要有財政責任。Rand Paul (R-KY) 係極少數的Tea Party支持者，又堅守Fiscal Responsibility的政客，之前差D搞到Government Shut down，因為佢認為唔可以咁亂洗錢

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https://www.npr.org/2017/12/03/568132999/a-tea-party-activist-on-the-tax-bills

不過老老實實，Tea Party Movement基本上已經過咗氣，國會入面個Caucus都散班咁濟。

多謝巴打，因為我記憶中GOP以保守主義見稱，不論在政治,財政,宗教觀。不過近幾年GOP好似放棄了傳統的道德觀念，好似trump係一個唔太符合GOP理念既GOP總統，想問點解會有咁既變化？

係上個post, 前路在何方巴打問左以上問題, 近日小弟無意中係Vox個Youtube channel睇左兩段片, 相信多少有助釐清巴打嘅疑惑, 希望你見到

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How the Republican Party went from Lincoln to Trump

https://youtu.be/s8VOM8ET1WU

呢段係簡解點撚解GOP會由當年林肯領導嘅progressive路線, 變成今日咁嘅樣



Authoritarianism: The political science that explains Trump

https://youtu.be/5YU9djt_CQM

呢段係從一個政治科學研究嘗試解釋點解Trump會得到廣泛GOP人支持


題外話, Vox個channel唔錯, 啲片短而精, 有時間不妨睇下有無嘢啱睇

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題外話二, 連登到今日都無pm真係好on9

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Filibuster_HK 2018-5-16 08:19:43 感謝巴打分享

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Vox 都有條片講老布殊的政策同之後敗選點影響兩黨的取向

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https://youtu.be/TImO_RquoW8

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-16 08:23:27 N Korea cancels talks with South Korea and warns US

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44133308

The North's official KCNA news agency said the exercises were a "provocation" and a rehearsal for an invasion.

It also warned the US over the fate of the historic summit between Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump that is scheduled for 12 June in Singapore.

In short, the scheduled talks with South Korea were a follow-up to a rare summit that was held on 27 April.

Representatives had planned to discuss further details of the agreements they had made at the historic summit.

This covers things like ridding the peninsula of nuclear weapons and turning the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953 into a peace treaty.

前路在何方 2018-5-16 11:39:26 多謝巴打介紹，不過睇到條片後，發覺民主黨支持平權政策，失去南部白人支持。相比起少數族裔票的數量，是不是得不償失？

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Filibuster_HK 2018-5-16 11:57:57 Anwar Ibrahim freed from prison after royal pardon from Malaysian king

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/anwar-ibrahim-freed-from-prison-royal-pardon-malaysia-10237840

KUALA LUMPUR: Jailed Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) leader Anwar Ibrahim on Wednesday (May 16) left the Cheras Rehabilitation Hospital a free man after receiving a royal pardon from the Malaysian king.

The Pardons Board met at 11am to discuss Anwar's release and application for a pardon.

Smiling and looking spry in a tailored black suit, Anwar emerged from a Kuala Lumpur hospital where he had undergone surgery for a shoulder problem, giving a thumbs-up to a crowd of journalists before leaving in a car without comment.

Anwar and his wife, the nominated deputy prime minister, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, were earlier on Wednesday morning invited for an audience with the king, Sultan Muhammad V, at 12.30pm at the royal palace.

The royal pardon reverses Anwar's conviction and makes him eligible to actively participate in politics. His daughter Nurul Izzah told Channel NewsAsia on the eve of his release that the pardon "completely validate(s) his innocence".

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-16 21:21:28 Senate Committee Releases 2,500 Pages About 2016 Trump Tower Meeting

https://www.npr.org/2018/05/16/611477917/senate-committee-releases-2-500-pages-about-2016-trump-tower-meeting

The Senate Judiciary Committee released more than 2,500 pages of documents on Wednesday related to its investigation about a meeting in 2016 between top Donald Trump aides and a delegation of Russians who promised to help their campaign.

The material, which includes interview transcripts and other "exhibits," is available here.
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/materials-from-inquiry-into-circumstances-surrounding-trump-tower-meeting?peek=JnLNybHsog26L1cFm8AR63234MDsncYLzYhn7Ze9%2FdDXzs%2B6

The transcripts and notes reaffirm accounts of the meeting that people involved have already given — that Donald Trump Jr. and his compatriots sought "dirt" offered them on Hillary Clinton and received some political intelligence tip but nothing as explosive as they'd hoped.

伏羽忍冬 2018-5-16 21:51:54

多謝巴打介紹，不過睇到條片後，發覺民主黨支持平權政策，失去南部白人支持。相比起少數族裔票的數量，是不是得不償失？

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我唔直接答你, 用例子答你

Affordable Care Act, 或者比較common嘅名, Obamacare係美國備受爭議. Obamacare有幾半桶水唔係重點, 重點係如果轉一轉巴打你個問題嘅主題, 由平權政策變成醫保法案, 基本上係面對同一疑難, 到底值定唔值? 由呢個角度切入, 以下係兩個投左支持ACA通過, 之後因為咁連任失敗嘅議員嘅感想


Tom Perriello:

"In 2010, as a freshman congressman, I stared down the same threats that many Republican representatives face today, and I had to balance what I thought was right versus what I knew was politically advantageous. I was a Democrat representing a red Virginia district. Back then, a vote backing the Affordable Care Act — which Republican strategists had already branded "Obamacare" — meant facing millions of dollars in right-wing attack ads and almost certain defeat at the polls that fall.

My critics were right: I did lose my seat. But I never regretted my vote. Not once."

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-perriello-aca-lost-seat-20170329-story.html



Patrick Murphy:

" I was one of the 63 House Democrats who lost their seat in the epic 2010 election that was fueled by the Tea Party and their angst against Obamacare. I was one of those members yelled at in town halls and who received death threats and watched on TV when my colleague was shot in the head in January 2011, only months after she voted for the health care law.

...

Let me be clear, like any bill, there needs to be changes made. But my father taught me, “If you don’t stand for something, you’ll fall for anything.” I’m damn proud I stood up and voted for Obamacare. It was the right thing to do, even if it did cost my reelection."

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/was-losing-my-seat-obamacare-worth-it

政治行動係咪只係計算票數得失? 我認為肯撚定唔係
如果純粹為左選票而做嘢, 會變成民粹, 或者更衰嘅, 會變成Demagogue
一個好嘅立法者/當政者係理應有比民眾廣闊嘅視野, 去帶領民眾走向更好嘅社會
對一個社會嘅願景係理應大過票數得失計算(雖然長遠黎講, 理論上一個好嘅願景都應該為你帶黎票數)
所謂願景, 即係指你希望個社會變成點, 通俗啲講, 即係理念/理想
我諗馬丁路德金嘅"I have a dream"應該係世上最出名嘅政治願景之一


上面兩條友就係認為: 為左某一個佢堅信係正確嘅願景, 即使支持會無埋個議員位, 都係值

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重次重申, 我唔係話Obamacare好似加歷查呢位零缺點傳奇後衛咁完美, Obamacare實際有幾爛呢個唔係重點

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而當年民主黨實際上係為左得票定, 出於理念去推動平權政策都唔係重點(我亦無考究過

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有興趣知多啲美國醫保爭論嘅來龍去脈, 不妨一讀下面呢篇, 我認為寫得唔長但又交代得幾清楚:

https://theinitium.com/article/20170120-opinion-obamacare/

y4t7sds12 2018-5-16 22:11:28 Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
The Washington Post and CNN have typically written false stories about our trade negotiations with China. Nothing has happened with ZTE except as it pertains to the larger trade deal. Our country has been losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year with China...
...We have not seen China’s demands yet, which should be few in that previous U.S. Administrations have done so poorly in negotiating. China has seen our demands. There has been no folding as the media would love people to believe, the meetings...
...haven’t even started yet! The U.S. has very little to give, because it has given so much over the years. China has much to give!

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土木膠程師 2018-5-16 22:16:23

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海龜先生 2018-5-16 22:22:09 算唔算撚狗

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根本國際政治就唔可以睇佢兩條tweet就決定行緊咩方向

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係傻仔先會話，侵侵出條tweet話放生中興呀，佢出賣美國中國又羸啦

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action speaks louder than words
淨係換哂個班底做反中人已經係一個action啦

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伏羽忍冬 2018-5-16 22:51:09 問題係個source都係出自你早兩日嘅twitter, 咁都計人地false

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PepperPig 2018-5-17 01:30:19 [突發] 有人在白宮聯署網站提出凍結香港政策法

lihkg.com/t/658941/1?ref=android

聯署link：petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/petition-president-trump-freeze-united-states-hong-kong-policy-act

因為Trump彈弓手想放生中興，襯而家中興件事係美國鬧大咗同爭議大咗

會唔會有人send呢個聯署去美國參衆兩院議員電郵，同埋共和民主兩黨，再加右翼政黨黨員電郵？

最好send埋去反Trump嘅media, e.g. CNN, 同埋每個Trump嘅twitter post 都reply呢個聯署，最好加埋原因，Trump個邊大把美國公民留言唔妥放生中國

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Filibuster_HK 2018-5-17 13:27:15 Senate votes to save net neutrality rules

http://thehill.com/policy/technology/387985-senate-votes-to-save-net-neutrality-rules

The Senate on Wednesday voted to reinstate the Federal Communications Commission's (FCC) net neutrality rules, passing a bill that has little chance of advancing in the House but offers net neutrality supporters and Democrats a political rallying point for the midterm elections.

Democrats were able to force Wednesday’s vote using an obscure legislative tool known as the Congressional Review Act (CRA). CRA bills allow Congress, with a majority vote in each chamber and the president's signature, to overturn recent agency moves.

Three Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and John Kennedy (La.) — joined the 49 Senate Democrats to pass the bill 52-47.

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-17 13:28:35 Malaysia's Najib Razak has home searched by police

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44144151

Malaysian police have searched the home of ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak, one week after he lost the national election.

Multiple police vehicles were seen circulating in front of his house after night fall, according to local media.

The new prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, previously said he was looking into re-opening corruption investigations against his former ally.

Mr Najib denies any wrongdoing. He was put under a travel ban at the weekend.

He had attempted to leave the country to go on holiday with his wife on Saturday.

Police confirmed the search of his property, but did not give any further details, the New Straits Times newspaper reported.

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-17 13:32:08 Tensions erupt among Trump trade officials ahead of China talks

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/16/trump-trade-china-591201

Tensions between Trump administration moderates and hard-liners on trade with China are boiling over ahead of talks with Chinese negotiators in Washington this week — and as President Donald Trump seems increasingly eager to reach a deal.

Peter Navarro, a Beijing critic and the standard-bearer of the president’s harsh campaign rhetoric on China, had a screaming match with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, a moderate, during an initial round of talks in Beijing two weeks ago. On Wednesday, his name wasn’t on a Treasury Department list of U.S. officials who will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and the rest of the Beijing delegation at Treasury on Thursday and Friday.

One administration official said Navarro is being excluded from the talks this week. A White House spokeswoman later said Navarro would have a role. It is not clear exactly what that would entail.

Trump’s apparent openness to a deal has set off a panic among some of his more hard-line advisers, who blame Mnuchin for convincing the president to abandon his commitment to taking an aggressive posture toward China.

Navarro and Mnuchin ended up screaming and cursing at each other on the lawn in front of the Chinese government building where the talks were held — though no Chinese officials were present. Navarro also worried that Mnuchin is leading the administration down the wrong path on trade with China, said the source briefed on the trip.

Filibuster_HK 2018-5-17 13:35:02 Turkey expels Israeli consul in spat over Gaza violence

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-usa-embassy-turkey-envoy/turkey-expels-israeli-consul-in-spat-over-gaza-violence-idUSKCN1IH0GP

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey has ordered the Israeli consul general in Istanbul to return to Israel “for some time”, a Turkish Foreign Ministry official said on Wednesday, in a diplomatic row that follows the killing of 60 Palestinian protesters by Israeli forces.

Turkey has been among the most vocal critics of the Israeli use of deadly force against protesters at the Gaza border and of the U.S. decision to open its new embassy in Jerusalem.

President Tayyip Erdogan described Monday’s bloodshed, the deadliest for Palestinians since the 2014 Gaza conflict, as genocide and called Israel a terrorist state. The government declared three days of mourning.

Turkey has expelled Israel’s ambassador and recalled its ambassadors from Tel Aviv and Washington. It has called for an emergency meeting of Islamic nations on Friday.

Israel expelled the Turkish consul-general in Jerusalem, and Erdogan exchanged heated words on Twitter with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

你識條春咩 2018-5-17 14:41:34 好彩

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書桓 2018-5-17 15:03:00 唔會過到house, 死心吧啦

你識條春咩 2018-5-17 15:05:29

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伏羽忍冬 2018-5-17 15:14:16 https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/11/16746230/net-neutrality-fcc-isp-congress-campaign-contribution

美國兩會議員收受嘅ISP政治獻金整理

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https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00096

睇完上面, 有興趣嘅可以觀察埋參議員今次投票取向

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