K85666
2024-3-1 23:36:41
Miner outflows are at peak
Decreasing volume on Bitstamp and Bitfinex BTCUSD pairs since the bear market low
It simply doesn't make sense for the BTCUSD volume to remain that low IF smart money is expecting a further big move to the upside
ETF rally has happened 38k→64k
K85666
2024-3-1 23:47:25
Simply put, while new money has been flooding in since the most recent 38k (BTC) low, the biggest buyers around the last (BTC) cycle low (15-25k) have been selling all the way up. Its irrational to assume that the new money will continue at the same pace indefinitely once the novelty has faded.
Any new well structured investment product will generally have an rally at the beginning of its inception, however this has little bearing on long-term performance. This 'novelty effect' seems to be the most simple explanation for the inflow of volume but has been largely ignored in favor of more esoteric explanations, such as BTC becoming a global reserve currency, and other theses that have been invalidated countless times.