我覺得投資可以睇埋兩邊正反意見,引用一下其他人研究(https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211108/),宜家美股估值水平可以有幾多預期回報(SP500為例):
"The chart below shows the correlation between these valuation measures and actual subsequent S&P 500 12-year total returns, in data since 1928. 現時持有SP500至未來12年既回報預期係-6% annually,頂盡係0%。
Valuation對預測短期回報無用,但對預測長期回報好有用。如果大家想短炒TQQQ既話當然可以無視valuation,但如果想財自strong hold 10年,valuation就係不可忽視既因素。當然你可以唔認同以上睇法,正如耶魯經濟學家Irving Fisher
喺1929年講“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." 但係一個permanently high plateau出現既機會有幾大?