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龜根尻底
Sorry for the late reply, you have brought up a few interesting points.
1) As a primary home, would it be safe to say that we don’t really need to consider the investment nature of the property.
For me, no. If you can live in the same apartment regardless of renting/buying, what matters is, how much you have to pay for it. Let's ignore being kicked out by landlord that kind of uncontrollable things. Even if you buy an apartment, there are many things uncontrollable, including compulsory contribution to the building maintenance, someone died near your unit and pulls down your property price as being closed to a 凶宅.
So what really matters, if whether you put your money into the right place. TOO MANY people only focus on my assumption of making 10% profit annually. But to be very honest, that is not the emphasis of my words. I took the past 2x years HK property pricing data ( cos the pricing index started in 1997) and drew a normal distribution (significant 95%).
What we see is, the annual growth rate of the so called booming HK property price, is only 4.85%. Given the inflation of the past 30 years is around 2.6%. So you see, the actual gain from the property appreciation is only 2.25%, which is the current mortgage rate.
For those who understands what I said, you see that the appreciation of the property can only offset the current p-3=2.25% mortgage lending rate...Then, my question back to you is, is it really worth locking your opportunity cost here?
Of course, throughout the years, you can draw extra cash from the property by doing mortgage refinancing. But me as a non-property owner, i can also utilize personal loan.
1) As a primary home, would it be safe to say that we don’t really need to consider the investment nature of the property.
For me, no. If you can live in the same apartment regardless of renting/buying, what matters is, how much you have to pay for it. Let's ignore being kicked out by landlord that kind of uncontrollable things. Even if you buy an apartment, there are many things uncontrollable, including compulsory contribution to the building maintenance, someone died near your unit and pulls down your property price as being closed to a 凶宅.
So what really matters, if whether you put your money into the right place. TOO MANY people only focus on my assumption of making 10% profit annually. But to be very honest, that is not the emphasis of my words. I took the past 2x years HK property pricing data ( cos the pricing index started in 1997) and drew a normal distribution (significant 95%).
:^(
What we see is, the annual growth rate of the so called booming HK property price, is only 4.85%. Given the inflation of the past 30 years is around 2.6%. So you see, the actual gain from the property appreciation is only 2.25%, which is the current mortgage rate.
For those who understands what I said, you see that the appreciation of the property can only offset the current p-3=2.25% mortgage lending rate...Then, my question back to you is, is it really worth locking your opportunity cost here?
Of course, throughout the years, you can draw extra cash from the property by doing mortgage refinancing. But me as a non-property owner, i can also utilize personal loan.
龜根尻底
In addition, drawing more mortgage is based on the assumptions that
1) property price rises
2) reborrow the money you have paid back
for (1), 4.85% annually . that means you will be able to draw 250k next year for my 5m apartment case.
(2), if you know the mortgage payback schedule, first few years you barely pay back the principal. out of 14000 monthly payment, maybe only 1000-2000 is the loan, 12000 is the interest.
But when i am not holding any property, i can draw 1m p-loan with ease.
If i can utilize the p-loan, i do not even need to gain 10% yearly. Only 6-7% may be already good enough to cover the property price in 30 years.
2) Lets come to your second question.
Seems like we be running into a bear market. Do you have any plans or strategy or any ideas on how we can profit out of this? Talking to my fds recently about this. They are storing up gold to hold value and they plan to buy google, amazon, Tesla and Facebook when it tanks.
Holding gold, or other commodities products, are mainly for HEDGING inflation, technically you wont expect to profit from it if you are storing spot gold (as in any non-derivatives gold products). I am not a fan of value investing, because i am not good at reading financial statement. I believe it works , but for US market, not HK. For the past 10 years, trading Hong Kong market is following the momentum (one big reason is that majority of the money in HK isnt from retail, which exposes the market to huge chance of market manipulation). I am not saying US doesnt have this sort of manipulation, but value investing usually works better in US. (Tesla is an absolute exception, I got 3 calls from my fund managers friends in New York before Tesla rose crazily in Dec.)
3) Do you only buy into options or you also trade index? If so, do you buy London listed index or just straight from us listed funds?
I do both options and index futures. They serve as different purpose. Option is really really effective for hedging big portfolio. And you can gain even the market is boring. But when i buy options, i usually make a strategy (collar, calendar spread etc). Option is a very cheap and fun product, but takes a lot of time to think and understand what would be the best payoff diagram...
On the other hand, Index futures is much easier to understand. But you have to bear the fluctuation. I mainly do HSI , and DAX, because of the fast movement.
4) Would you mind sharing your strategy for discussion? (I’m still trying to build my system)
hmm, I use a combined strategy of SMA, DMI. I dont look at MACD because it is too lagging. And Backtesting is very very very important for building strategy. But i would say, the idea of building strategies is >> BE SIMPLE. (I am still improving my strategy so i may not be the best person to give you guidance on this)
5) I have also looked at investing elsewhere. Only capital or major city, London, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne. If you take in to consideration of taxes (assuming you have no tax arrangements and pay full) seems the cash on cash return are very similar to hk. Or maybe just 1-2% better. Was wondering if you have looked into overseas market and have any findings.
Like what i said earlier, i focus more on HK/US, mainly HK. And if you have a chance to see my screenshot earlier on my 12times profit strategy, that was also investing in HK, using a momentum strategy. I rather dont touch something I am not closely monitoring (then why i play DAX index futures? because i only look at technical indicators when playing index. Assumption is , volume/price already factor in all the relevant news/fundamental/sentiment. So i only have to look at the chart, but nothing else.
1) property price rises
2) reborrow the money you have paid back
for (1), 4.85% annually . that means you will be able to draw 250k next year for my 5m apartment case.
(2), if you know the mortgage payback schedule, first few years you barely pay back the principal. out of 14000 monthly payment, maybe only 1000-2000 is the loan, 12000 is the interest.
But when i am not holding any property, i can draw 1m p-loan with ease.
If i can utilize the p-loan, i do not even need to gain 10% yearly. Only 6-7% may be already good enough to cover the property price in 30 years.
2) Lets come to your second question.
Seems like we be running into a bear market. Do you have any plans or strategy or any ideas on how we can profit out of this? Talking to my fds recently about this. They are storing up gold to hold value and they plan to buy google, amazon, Tesla and Facebook when it tanks.
Holding gold, or other commodities products, are mainly for HEDGING inflation, technically you wont expect to profit from it if you are storing spot gold (as in any non-derivatives gold products). I am not a fan of value investing, because i am not good at reading financial statement. I believe it works , but for US market, not HK. For the past 10 years, trading Hong Kong market is following the momentum (one big reason is that majority of the money in HK isnt from retail, which exposes the market to huge chance of market manipulation). I am not saying US doesnt have this sort of manipulation, but value investing usually works better in US. (Tesla is an absolute exception, I got 3 calls from my fund managers friends in New York before Tesla rose crazily in Dec.)
3) Do you only buy into options or you also trade index? If so, do you buy London listed index or just straight from us listed funds?
I do both options and index futures. They serve as different purpose. Option is really really effective for hedging big portfolio. And you can gain even the market is boring. But when i buy options, i usually make a strategy (collar, calendar spread etc). Option is a very cheap and fun product, but takes a lot of time to think and understand what would be the best payoff diagram...
On the other hand, Index futures is much easier to understand. But you have to bear the fluctuation. I mainly do HSI , and DAX, because of the fast movement.
4) Would you mind sharing your strategy for discussion? (I’m still trying to build my system)
hmm, I use a combined strategy of SMA, DMI. I dont look at MACD because it is too lagging. And Backtesting is very very very important for building strategy. But i would say, the idea of building strategies is >> BE SIMPLE. (I am still improving my strategy so i may not be the best person to give you guidance on this)
5) I have also looked at investing elsewhere. Only capital or major city, London, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne. If you take in to consideration of taxes (assuming you have no tax arrangements and pay full) seems the cash on cash return are very similar to hk. Or maybe just 1-2% better. Was wondering if you have looked into overseas market and have any findings.
Like what i said earlier, i focus more on HK/US, mainly HK. And if you have a chance to see my screenshot earlier on my 12times profit strategy, that was also investing in HK, using a momentum strategy. I rather dont touch something I am not closely monitoring (then why i play DAX index futures? because i only look at technical indicators when playing index. Assumption is , volume/price already factor in all the relevant news/fundamental/sentiment. So i only have to look at the chart, but nothing else.
素麵
我覺得比左首期 供緊樓既人
衹係比啲唔想諗拎畢錢封做其他投資
因為佢地相信磚頭保到值
相信香港未仆街
但過左今年 真係諗諗下你層樓保唔保到值
想走佬賣出去又要計住有冇蝕到
所以租係依加黎講並唔係憨居
而係有更多可能性
比我就拎去移民好尻過
衹係比啲唔想諗拎畢錢封做其他投資
因為佢地相信磚頭保到值
相信香港未仆街
但過左今年 真係諗諗下你層樓保唔保到值
想走佬賣出去又要計住有冇蝕到
所以租係依加黎講並唔係憨居
而係有更多可能性
比我就拎去移民好尻過
王者熊大
因為上面既人答錯哂
你又黎假設自己最撚醒，租樓果個就可以隨時借幾百萬p loan, 買樓果個既人工就一蚊p loan都借唔到
你呢亨人就係讀書讀壞腦，fina1001
你記得唔好睇完我comment偷偷地買樓呀，一世唔好買呀，你買左樓正契弟
:^(
你又黎假設自己最撚醒，租樓果個就可以隨時借幾百萬p loan, 買樓果個既人工就一蚊p loan都借唔到
:^(
:^(
:^(
:^(
你呢亨人就係讀書讀壞腦，fina1001
:^(
:^(
你記得唔好睇完我comment偷偷地買樓呀，一世唔好買呀，你買左樓正契弟
:^(
:^(
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龜根尻底
我上面英文嗰段答左。我冇話p-loan平過mortgage, 唔好偷換概念。
再draw mortgage 既條件係層樓升，但我講緊既係，當一開始你攞爆左mortgage買樓，我仲可以拎左一球p loan. 過去幾十年樓每年平均只係升左4.85%，而通脹係2.6%
你十年前買左樓當然會覺得我好on9, 因為你地賺左覺得自己好叻。成篇文唔係講買樓係好定壞，討論既係機會成本。如果之後30年樓會年只跟通脹升，你仲會唔會買？ 呢樣野冇人知，所以我唔覺得佢串，因為佢根本連我個重點係咩都仲係唔明，即係你唔會怪個3歲小朋友串你，因為你只會可憐佢。成日拎住個10% 係到講，基本邏輯同理解能力都冇其實好難討論。
本文重點係，究竟樓未來既升幅有幾大，先可以保證佢會好過其他投資。因為其他一線城市，倫敦東京，樓會升，但唔會好似香港咁。咁你係咪相信香港可以維持呢個爆發力，despite 有既政治風險同其他野。
最後，我真係淨係想理性討論買樓既機會成本，重點真係唔想講咩投資回報，賺幾多錢，因為我只係求其用個假設去令到大家可以討論。我假設10%回報，層樓升到2000萬，唔加息，我要俾50000租，請問呢個假設邊一部分偏幫左租客？
但既然你講到自己好似最世界最醒，然後笑鳩我又乜又7咁。sorry 呀，我上年嗰120萬，宜家變左千幾萬，我買起你層樓淨返啲錢買花生都夠有突，咁你仲有咩聲出？
再draw mortgage 既條件係層樓升，但我講緊既係，當一開始你攞爆左mortgage買樓，我仲可以拎左一球p loan. 過去幾十年樓每年平均只係升左4.85%，而通脹係2.6%
你十年前買左樓當然會覺得我好on9, 因為你地賺左覺得自己好叻。成篇文唔係講買樓係好定壞，討論既係機會成本。如果之後30年樓會年只跟通脹升，你仲會唔會買？ 呢樣野冇人知，所以我唔覺得佢串，因為佢根本連我個重點係咩都仲係唔明，即係你唔會怪個3歲小朋友串你，因為你只會可憐佢。成日拎住個10% 係到講，基本邏輯同理解能力都冇其實好難討論。
本文重點係，究竟樓未來既升幅有幾大，先可以保證佢會好過其他投資。因為其他一線城市，倫敦東京，樓會升，但唔會好似香港咁。咁你係咪相信香港可以維持呢個爆發力，despite 有既政治風險同其他野。
最後，我真係淨係想理性討論買樓既機會成本，重點真係唔想講咩投資回報，賺幾多錢，因為我只係求其用個假設去令到大家可以討論。我假設10%回報，層樓升到2000萬，唔加息，我要俾50000租，請問呢個假設邊一部分偏幫左租客？
但既然你講到自己好似最世界最醒，然後笑鳩我又乜又7咁。sorry 呀，我上年嗰120萬，宜家變左千幾萬，我買起你層樓淨返啲錢買花生都夠有突，咁你仲有咩聲出？
:^(
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