CFROI
2019-4-5 13:17:33
入buy-side係為左打份工嘅不如去返sell side
Raptor
2019-4-5 13:47:25
absolutely agree
btw, u think cfroi works esp Asia?
CFROI
2019-4-5 13:54:21
From value partner?
Emmm I look at more in smart money flow and factors being priced in or not with regard to the price action and how the market reacts to sell-side reports
CFROI at the end of the day is just one perspective for fundamental analysis, but fundamental factors have to be taken into account with market expectation
Eg Netflix has more downside risks than upside potential, coz whatever are favourable to its development are almost priced in, but many risks are not yet taken in account...
At this I’m more short-term: valuation not attractive and recession risk is forthcoming; mainland A share market may be relatively more attractive, especially with the help of MSCI, Russell and Dow
Raptor
2019-4-5 14:25:33
na, I'm AXJ sector analyst, VP is relatively small in that front. u cover hk/China?
agree with u on market view except china a. the valuation argument in Chinese equity or China a has been around for a very long time but it ignores policy, capital flows risk etc. especially the fact that it is still a closed market with too many gamblers. MSCI, ftse inclusion helps in theory, but it didn't help last time round tho
:^(
OwlCity
2019-4-5 17:59:11
點解咁講?想知多d
也許只能如此
2019-4-5 18:25:48
Chings 而家幾多年資搵緊幾多
:^(
CFROI
2019-4-5 18:30:17
Chinese market is undergoing a structural change with a more open market as reflected in the consistent reforming of QFII quota and the government’s eagerness to invite foreign capital (MSCI’s increase in a share proportion can be attributed largely to Central government’s effort)
Also, the Fed has taken a dovish attitude since the early Jan, causing a weak USD which provides support to the EM currencies, especially RMB; continuous and strong cash inflow into China market can reflect foreign capital’s confidence in China market compared to the US market
You may also view it as a kind of mean reversion mechanism: China market underperformed other markets last year significantly; it is normal to have fund flow this year, with the help of MSCI theme as said.
CFROI
2019-4-5 18:33:05
:^(
OwlCity
2019-4-5 18:36:09
:^(
CFROI
2019-4-5 18:40:57
:^(
Ads
Raptor
2019-4-5 19:00:26
:^(
Raptor
2019-4-5 19:09:47
depends how u define the lobbying effort...obviously they did a lot on and under the table ...guess u read those already. also, Chinese Gov has the incentive to keep stable CNY at least before trade war concludes to keep trump happier
I'm more on the mean reversion camp, just like semi con, earnings isnt there but share price is back to summer 18 level. I'm kinda concern march is just an early pull in ahead and it will be a sell on fact once everything is done, limited visibility in 2nd half thus far. seems it is much easier to hire now even in tier 1 cities, good or bad sign?