By Nathaniel Rakich
Filed under 2020 Democratic Primary
Which 2020 Democrats Already Have A Fan Base — And Which Don’t
Early horse-race polls of the presidential primary are sometimes accurate, sometimes not. So at this point in the election calendar, looking at how voters feel about each candidate can be more helpful. Measures like favorable and unfavorable ratings can reveal which candidates are polling poorly because they’re not popular and which are simply not well-known. This is important because most eventual nominees are one of two things early in the campaign: (1) household names who are already well-liked by members of their party or (2) relative unknowns.1
That’s also true of most major2 candidates (and potential candidates) in the 2020 Democratic field — but there is enough variation to be interesting, plus one notable outlier. Below, I’ve plotted the share of Democrats who can form an opinion of each major candidate (favorable rating plus unfavorable rating) against the candidate’s net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among Democrats,3 according to an average of national polls taken between Jan. 1 and Feb. 5 of this year.
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On the high-recognition end of the spectrum (the right side of the chart above), we have Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Among the three, however, Biden has the highest net favorability rating (+69 percentage points), which is higher than one would expect. By contrast, Sanders’s net favorability rating is a bit lower than what one would expect, at +52 points. Meanwhile, Warren’s +44 net favorability rating is a bit better than one would expect.
“What one would expect” is based on the overall trendline that’s plotted on the chart above, which is our best guess at what the relationship is between the share of Democrats with an opinion of the candidate and her net favorability rating among Democrats. The line projects what the net favorability rating “should” be for each candidate based on how well-known he or she is. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ actual net favorability ratings compare with those projections (in other words, the distance between their head and the line in the chart above):
Biden and Bloomberg break the favorability pattern
2020 Democratic candidates’ actual and projected net favorability ratings among Democratic respondents, based on the share of Democrats with an opinion of the candidate, according to an average of national polls conducted Jan. 1 through Feb. 5
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暴走的赫胥黎
2019-2-21 17:50:44
As you can see, Biden is unusually beloved, even for a politician as well-known as he is. The 12-point difference between his actual net favorability rating and his projected net favorability rating places him at the top of the table. But the biggest outlier is Michael Bloomberg, who says he is still deciding whether to get into the race. With 62 percent of Democrats able to form an opinion of him, Bloomberg is one of the better-known contenders. But he has a net favorability rating of only +11 (24 points less than expected). Why is Bloomberg so relatively unpopular? Maybe Democrats are aware of his moderate views on economic issues; for example, he compared Warren’s proposal for a “wealth tax” with “non-capitalistic” Venezuela. Or, maybe, in the era of President Trump, Democrats are turned off by the idea of nominating a businessman for president.
Either way, it’s a problem for Bloomberg, should he decide to run. According to FiveThirtyEight’s research, only one high-recognition but low-favorability candidate early in the campaign has overcome that handicap to win a nomination since at least 1980: Trump.4 The president may not get enough credit for his extraordinary comeback in the primary campaign5 — he turned a -42 net favorability rating among Republicans (!) in a May 2015 poll into a +28 net favorability rating that September. Bloomberg isn’t starting from such a low place, but if he wants to improve his popularity among primary voters, he may have a harder time than Trump did. Although he has the advantage of wealth (like Trump), Bloomberg is unlikely to get the massive quantity of free-media coverage that Trump did, and he doesn’t appear to scratch an unsatisfied itch for Democrats the way Trump has for the GOP.
As Trump showed, net favorability isn’t the be-all and end-all of primary prognostication. But it has proved instructive in other years. As always, we continue to entertain many hypotheses about how the presidential primary works.
補充資料
US proposal for defining gender has no basis in science https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07238-8
// [...]sex — a classification based on internal and external bodily characteristics — and gender, a social construct related to biological differences but also rooted in culture, societal norms and individual behaviour.
[...]
The research and medical community now sees sex as more complex than male and female, and gender as a spectrum that includes transgender people and those who identify as neither male nor female. //
Almost 40 percent of donors to Sen. Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential campaign so far have used an email address that was never previously used to give to a Sanders campaign, The New York Times reported Monday.
The revelation signals that Sanders may have significantly expanded his support base and donor network from when he ran for president in 2016.
The Times also reported that, as of Monday, Sanders has received $10 million from 359,914 donors since announcing his 2020 bid less than a week ago.
“Our second day was bigger than anybody else’s first day," Ari Rabin-Havt, a senior adviser to Sanders, told the newspaper.
There are also more than 48,000 donors who have agreed to give Sanders recurring donations. Those recurring donations will be worth more than $1 million in total per month, the Times reported, citing statistics provided by the Sanders campaign. According to the Times, the average contribution was less than $26.
Sanders announced his second bid for the presidency last week, and within 24 hours his campaign had received nearly $6 million in donations.
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•The rally was held at Brooklyn College in New York, not far from where Bernie Sanders grew up
•During his speech, Sanders, 77, talked about his working class roots, childhood and personal values
•He focused on his personal story during his speech, unlike what he did during his 2016 Presidential campaign
•About 2,000 people were said to have shown up for the rally despite freezing temperatures
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Bernie Sanders, 77, held the first rally of his 2020 presidential campaign at Brooklyn College in New York City Saturday. He grew up a short distance away from the rally's location in a working class family
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Sanders' reveal of his personal story was a shift from his failed 2016 Presidential campaign, which focused more on policies
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About 2,000 people showed up at the college campus to support Sanders despite freezing weather Saturday
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When Sanders talked policies, however, they were the same as before as he continued to advocate for making the rich pay more taxes, establishing free higher education, a $15 an hour minimum wage across the country and Medicare for all
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Sanders also stated that his campaign would not be based on 'racism, sexism, xenophobia, homophobia and religious bigotry' and that it would make clear 'that the underlying principles of our government will not be greed, hatred and lies'
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Sanders contrasted his working class upbringing with Trump's childhood, pointing out that unlike Trump, Sanders 'did not come from a family who gave me a $200,000 allowance every year' starting at age three, instead he got 25 cents a week
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Sanders also noted that unlike Trump's family which has been accused of housing discrimination, Sanders protested housing discrimination and was actually arrested for protesting school segregation
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As Sanders spoke the crowd chanted '1,2,3, screw the bourgeoisie' and 'Green New Deal!' referring to the Democratic plan to tackle climate change, while holding signs that stated 'From Palestine to Mexico, walls have got to go'
我幾支持佢內政都好
外交我真係吹唔起
基本上對於佢嘅外交立場
印象中我淨係知佢好似響
葉門內戰、沙特殺記者、同埋委內瑞拉政變嘅時候出過下聲
基本上都係「唔好干涉別國內政」啊、人道立場啊之類